{"id":37316,"date":"2026-01-19T07:59:47","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T07:59:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/?p=37316"},"modified":"2026-01-19T07:59:52","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T07:59:52","slug":"is-2026-really-a-buyers-market-dubais-delivery-data-tells-a-different-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/2026\/01\/19\/is-2026-really-a-buyers-market-dubais-delivery-data-tells-a-different-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Is 2026 really a buyer\u2019s market? Dubai\u2019s delivery data tells a different story"},"content":{"rendered":"

Delivery delays may limit supply, but informed buyers can still find opportunities by focusing on the right locations and timing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buyers and investors eyeing properties in Dubai have been told to wait, that a flood of new homes is coming, and prices will finally ease. But walk the streets or scroll the listings, and the reality is different. Homes are still scarce, demand is steady, and in 2026, knowing where \u2014 and when \u2014 to buy will make all the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tens of thousands of homes are technically \u201cplanned\u201d, yet far fewer are actually making it to handover. That gap is quietly shaping who has leverage in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to delivery data tracked by Morgan\u2019s International Realty, less than half of Dubai\u2019s planned residential supply is expected to be completed this year. Out of 71,613 forecasted units, only 34,740 are likely to be delivered \u2014 well below headline forecasts and recent delivery norms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dubai has already seen how wide the gap can be between forecasts and reality. In 2025, the city was projected to deliver 37,171 residential units. By mid-year, 16,631 had been completed, and only around 6,265 more were on track for year-end, meaning just 62 per cent of anticipated handovers materialised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selective, Not Sweeping<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With ready stock still limited and demand holding up, prices aren\u2019t expected to soften across the board. Instead, 2026 looks less like a buyer\u2019s market and more like a selective one \u2014 where the advantage goes to buyers who know where to look, what to avoid, and when negotiation power actually matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRealistic deliveries remain below levels that would materially overwhelm absorption, which means the market is not structurally positioned to shift in buyers\u2019 favour this year,\u201d said Elias Hannoush, founder and CEO of Morgan\u2019s International Realty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Elias Hannoush<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Delivery numbers also remain below Dubai\u2019s five-year annual average of roughly 35,500 completed units. \u201cIn that context, buyers shouldn\u2019t expect market-wide discounts,\u201d Hannoush said. \u201cThe main risk is assuming a market-wide advantage, when in reality delivery volumes remain structurally constrained relative to historical norms.\u201d Even with plenty of units \u201con the books\u201d, the actual supply reaching the market is limited, keeping competition high and negotiation opportunities selective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Andrew Cummings, head of residential agency at Savills Middle East, echoes the point. \u201cTraditionally, the anticipated numbers of unit handovers and the actual numbers are never the same. So, we don\u2019t anticipate that every unit is going to be handed over in time,\u201d he says, highlighting just how competitive the market remains for developers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hannoush is clear about the tipping point: there isn\u2019t a magic number. \u201cPrice corrections occur when absorption fails to keep pace with completed supply,\u201d he said. Based on current construction progress, deliveries in 2026 won\u2019t reach that level. Buyers shouldn\u2019t expect the broader market to swing in their favour. Leverage comes from knowing where supply is concentrated and acting strategically, Hannoush explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short-lived Windows of Leverage<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certain pockets of Dubai can offer buyers some wiggle room. \u201cBuyers may, at times, secure slightly better terms when a large development completes, and a meaningful number of units enter the market simultaneously,\u201d Hannoush explains. These windows are brief, usually appearing in high-density, mid-market areas where multiple investor-driven projects finish around the same time. Once that initial wave of units is absorbed, competition kicks back in, and negotiation power fades. Timing and awareness are everything in these moments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buyer leverage isn\u2019t uniform across the city. Hannoush says buyers \u201cmay encounter more flexibility, typically where delivery volumes are more concentrated, such as in high-density districts or within specific developments releasing a large number of similar units at once\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cummings emphasises the importance of research. \u201cThere are a lot of shiny objects,\u201d he says, but smart buyers focus on the fundamentals: the developer\u2019s track record, unit sizes, layouts, and location. At the end of the day, getting good returns isn\u2019t just about the best payment plan \u2014 it\u2019s about choosing the right property in the right neighbourhood at the right time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That tends to happen in mid-market, investor-driven locations, like JVC and Business Bay, rather than across all price brackets. Villas and premium properties behave differently \u2014 limited turnover and strong differentiation keep negotiation power low<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think we\u2019re seeing, in different parts of the market, more supply is coming,\u201d adds Cummings. \u201cSo, in the lower end of the market on the apartment side, as you start to get more apartments coming, that starts to soften that end of the market. At the same time, if you look at villas and townhouses, you know there is very little handing over over the next year in that space. So you know that will mean that there\u2019s still a bit of a lack of supply.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top development zones will shape this dynamic. Jumeirah Village Circle leads with 16,852 units across 2025\u201327, making it the most active area in Dubai\u2019s pipeline, according to Morgan\u2019s International Realty. Business Bay follows with 10,127 units, then Azizi Venice with 7,860 units. These areas are projected to see elevated delivery volumes, requiring agile pricing strategies to maintain absorption \u2014 and giving buyers occasional leverage, but only briefly and locally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices Aren\u2019t \u201cArtificially Elevated\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s tempting to call Dubai\u2019s current prices \u201cartificially high\u201d, but Hannoush says that misses the point. Asset values constantly adjust: up when a property is undervalued, down when it loses appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen delivery volumes fall materially short of what was originally planned, the market avoids the kind of sudden oversupply that typically triggers sharp corrections,\u201d he said. In strong markets, he adds, the first real warning sign isn\u2019t handovers \u2014 it\u2019s rental performance. \u201cWhen properties struggle to lease or fail to generate sustainable income, owners reassess, resale and supply increases, hence prices adjust.\u201d Right now, strong rental demand is keeping values supported, even as deliveries lag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Waiting for 2027? Think Carefully<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many buyers are being told to \u201cwait for 2027\u201d for better deals. Hannoush is sceptical. \u201cBased on delivery data alone, waiting is more likely to increase choices rather than automatically improve affordability,\u201d he says. Higher delivery volumes expand options, but they don\u2019t guarantee lower prices if demand, financing, and rental performance remain strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Affordability improves only when supply actually outpaces demand, leading to higher vacancies, lower rents, and increased resale competition. Still, there are exceptions: \u201cMore options can translate into better terms\u2026 particularly where a large volume of similar units is delivered within a short period of time, whether within a single development, location, or segment.\u201d Those moments offer a temporary window to negotiate until the supply is absorbed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Morgan\u2019s International Realty Dubai residential supply and delivery outlook report for 2025-27 projects a supply spike next year. Around 70,537 units are expected to be delivered, signalling a 27 per cent jump over the base forecast of 55,238. Hannoush warns this could shake up certain areas, slow the pace of home sales, and give buyers more negotiating power \u2014 especially in neighbourhoods where several new developments finish at the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cummings pushes back against waiting for 2027. \u201cThat question [of should I wait?] could be asked every year\u2026 basically no,\u201d he says. \u201cThe point of real estate is to buy and hold. People shouldn\u2019t be looking at Dubai real estate like it\u2019s crypto. You\u2019re not trying to buy and sell in six months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He sees a market that\u2019s evolving differently from previous cycles. \u201cI think the market is maturing in a very different way than it\u2019s done before. This is not like previous cycles because it is a different cycle,\u201d he says. Unlike the boom-and-bust swings of the past, the capital flowing into Dubai now is \u201cmuch more long-term in nature\u201d, meaning investors are playing the long game rather than chasing quick flips.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balancing Forecasts and Reality<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For buyers navigating 2026, Hannoush stresses that it\u2019s not enough to look at forecasts or delivery numbers in isolation because both matter. \u201cReal estate is a long-term investment, and buyers \u2014 particularly foreign investors without local market insight \u2014 need to approach decisions with structured, well-informed analysis,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Delivery data shows the near-term landscape: where supply pressures, competition, and pricing dynamics are concentrated. Supply forecasts provide a long-term lens: how much inventory is planned, where future density will concentrate, and how different districts may evolve. Understanding both helps investors avoid overpaying for or backing the wrong assets and focus on properties likely to hold value over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Picking the Right Property<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The experts ruled that the biggest risk in 2026 isn\u2019t overpaying or waiting. It\u2019s picking the wrong property. \u201cIn markets where demand remains strong, and deliveries are constrained, prices tend to hold for well-positioned assets, while weaker or undifferentiated stock behaves very differently,\u201d Hannoush says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wait without a plan, and you could miss out on a high-quality unit. Rush in without knowing what\u2019s coming, and you might overpay. The takeaway is simple: focus on the right property, not the perfect moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: Khaleej Times<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Published: 16 January 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Delivery delays may limit supply, but informed buyers can still find opportunities by focusing on the right locations and timing Buyers and investors eyeing properties in Dubai have been told to wait, that a flood of new homes is coming, and prices will finally ease. But walk the streets or scroll the listings, and the […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":37319,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5801,5800,361,991,5799],"class_list":["post-37316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-dubai-off-plan","tag-dubai-property-supply","tag-dubai-real-estate","tag-property-market-trends","tag-real-estate-data"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37316"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37316\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37320,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37316\/revisions\/37320"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/ru\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}