Experts now say the UAE was never truly in the line of fire, and even if the worst had materialised, the country is among the best positioned in the region to absorb the shock<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After days of escalating Gulf tensions following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, both Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire on Tuesday, June 24, easing fears of a full-fledged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While Tehran\u2019s parliament had approved the\u00a0option to block the vital waterway\u00a0on June 22, pending approval by its Supreme National Security Council, the recent truce and Iran’s restraint signal that this dramatic move was never likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But experts now say the UAE was never truly in the line of fire, and even if the worst had materialised, the country is among the best positioned in the region to absorb the shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have dramatically heightened geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, placing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, at the centre of global economic concern. Roughly 20 per cent of the world\u2019s daily oil supply, or about 17 million barrels per day, passes through this narrow waterway,\u201d said Hamza Dweik, Head of Trading at Saxo Bank Mena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cFor the UAE, a temporary closure of the Strait would have immediate and multifaceted economic consequences, particularly in the areas of oil exports, imports, and inflation,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, analysts point out that the UAE\u2019s exposure is cushioned by both infrastructure and policy foresight. A major portion of its oil exports can bypass the Strait via the Habshan\u2013Fujairah pipeline, which runs directly to the eastern seaboard. Ports like Fujairah and Khor Fakkan also lie outside the Strait, ensuring continued access to international shipping lanes. Combined with the country’s liberalised fuel pricing model, strategic stockpiles, and sovereign wealth buffers, these factors greatly reduce the impact of short-term disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The UAE exports around 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, with a significant portion transiting through the strait. While the Habshan\u2013Fujairah pipeline offers an alternate route capable of transporting up to 1.8 million barrels a day, it doesn\u2019t fully offset the volume typically passing through Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOn the import side, the UAE relies heavily on maritime routes for essential goods, including food, machinery, and construction materials. Disruptions would likely increase freight and insurance costs, delay shipments, and contribute to imported inflation,\u201d Dweik said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov, former Senior Vice President at Otkritie Bank, noted that global shipping had already started adjusting in anticipation of conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cRight now, ships are already avoiding the area. MarineTraffic data shows vessels taking long detours, adding days to voyages. The UAE imports 90 per cent of its food and consumer goods by sea. Longer shipping routes mean higher costs\u2014and those get passed to consumers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWith Dubai\u2019s financial hub deeply tied to trade, foreign investors might pull back, hurting capital flows just as the UAE pushes its non-oil growth,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tserazov also flagged a less obvious risk: energy supply to power-hungry sectors like AI and data infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cData centres guzzle power, and that\u2019s a problem. The UAE is betting big on AI, expecting it to contribute 14 per cent to GDP by 2030. But AI needs data centres, and data centres need massive energy. Gas fuels 76.5 per cent of the UAE\u2019s electricity\u2026 If Hormuz closes, LNG shipments from Qatar (which also transit the strait) get cut off. Suddenly, keeping servers online competes with cooling homes and running factories.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite these risks, maritime experts say the UAE was already positioned for resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cA closure or escalation in the Strait of Hormuz would significantly disrupt maritime operations connected to the UAE, with consequences spanning trade, logistics, insurance, and security,\u201d said Capt. Dilip Goel, who leads unified maritime asset monitoring and control at AD Ports Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAny disruption could affect up to $10\u201315 billion in monthly trade flows, depending on the severity and duration. UAE ports like Jebel Ali, Khalifa, and Mina Rashid\u2026 would see schedule disruptions, vessel bunching, and cascading delays across container, tanker, and bulk traffic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ports outside the strait, including Fujairah, the world\u2019s second-largest bunkering port, act as vital alternatives. Meanwhile, the UAE\u2019s strong financial position, with over $150 billion in reserves and nearly $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth fund assets, offers enough cushion for short-term shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIn short, while the UAE is better positioned than many Gulf nations to absorb and reroute, a prolonged closure of Hormuz would not just delay cargo, it would test the region\u2019s entire maritime security architecture, logistics resilience, and commercial adaptability,\u201d Goel said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the danger appears to have passed for now, experts agree the UAE\u2019s strategic foresight, from energy pipelines and diversified ports to strong capital reserves, will continue to offer a reliable shield against regional volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Source : Khaleej Time<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Published: 24 June 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Experts now say the UAE was never truly in the line of fire, and even if the worst had materialised, the country is among the best positioned in the region to absorb the shock After days of escalating Gulf tensions following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, both Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire on […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":29101,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2994,2995,2997,2996,1459],"class_list":["post-29100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-gulf-security","tag-hormuz-strait","tag-middle-east-resilience","tag-regional-stability","tag-uae-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29101"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/elite-bricks.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}